W. John Schmelz

This page briefly describes research projects that I have recently contributed to.

Cenozoic sea-level and paleoclimate reconstruction

This research reconstructs Cenozoic barystatic sea level, deep-sea temperature, and cryospheric evolution using benthic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca records, carbon dioxide proxy data, and continental-margin sea-level records. I use Bayesian hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, and forward models of cryospheric evolution to quantify uncertainty and separate the temperature, ice-volume, and regional components of sea-level change. This work also emphasizes consistent, astronomically calibrated chronologies so that geochemical, stratigraphic, and paleoenvironmental records can be compared within a common time framework.

Research output

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., Browning, J.V., Kopp, R.E., & Wright, J.D. (2026). Bayesian reconstruction of Cenozoic temperature and sea-level variability from high-resolution benthic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca records. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, in review.

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., & Wright, J.D. (2026). The role of standardized chronology in advancing estimates of Cenozoic sea-level change. Past Global Changes Magazine, 34(1), 26–27. Link

Miller, K.G., Schmelz, W.J., Browning, J.V., Rosenthal, Y., Hess, A.V., Kopp, R.E., & Wright, J.D. (2024). Global mean and relative sea-level changes over the past 66 Myr: Implications for Early Eocene ice sheets. Earth Science, Systems and Society, 3, 10091. Link

Miller, K.G., Browning, J.V., Schmelz, W.J., Kopp, R.E., Mountain, G.S., & Wright, J.D. (2020). Cenozoic sea-level and cryospheric evolution from deep-sea geochemical and continental margin records. Science Advances, 6(20), eaaz1346. Link

Miller, K.G., Schmelz, W.J., Browning, J.V., Kopp, R.E., Mountain, G.S., & Wright, J.D. (2020). Ancient sea level as key to the future. Oceanography, 33(2), 32–41. Link

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., Kopp, R.E., & Wright, J.D. (2026). Bayesian reconstruction of Cenozoic deep-sea temperature, ice volume, and Milankovitch-scale sea-level variability: Enhancing Pacific estimates of benthic foraminiferal δ18O using Gaussian process priors and the global CENOGRID database. GSA Connects 2026, Denver, Colorado, 11–14 October 2026, abstract 270-4. Abstract

Stratigraphic modeling of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic margin

This work combines forward stratigraphic modeling with statistical analysis of mantle dynamic topography and sea-level records. The process-based model simulates passive-margin stratigraphy in response to sea-level change, sediment supply, thermal subsidence, lithospheric flexure, compaction, and sediment transport. Bayesian inversion is used to estimate the relative influence of these forcings on observed stratigraphic architecture, while complementary statistical models isolate regional mantle-dynamic-topography signals in Mid-Atlantic margin sea-level records. Current applications integrate three-dimensional seismic data with IODP Expedition 313 cores to investigate Miocene sequence development offshore New Jersey.

Research output

Browning, J.V., Miller, K.G., Schmelz, W.J., & Sugarman, P.J. (2025). Eocene sequences and forward modeling of the New Jersey Coastal Plain, U.S.A.: Changing depositional styles in response to climate and sea level. Journal of Sedimentary Research, 95(2), 383–404. Link

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., Mountain, G.S., Steckler, M.S., & Browning, J.V. (2024). Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence. Basin Research, 36, e12854. Link

Schmelz, W.J. (2021). New insights on the evolution of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic continental margin from sequence stratigraphy, statistics, and forward modeling: Implications for carbon sequestration and sea-level studies. Ph.D. dissertation, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, School of Graduate Studies. PDF

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., Kopp, R.E., Mountain, G.S., & Browning, J.V. (2021). Influence of mantle dynamic topographical variations on U.S. Mid-Atlantic continental margin estimates of sea-level change. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL090521. Link

Evaluation of Mid-Atlantic U.S. offshore carbon storage resources

This initiative has comprised geological and economic studies to evaluate the suitability of potential carbon storage resources along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic margin. In 2024, Rutgers, in collaboration with Battelle National Laboratories, received a three-year Department of Energy grant to build on our prior stratigraphic and reservoir characterizations and refine evaluations of potential reservoir systems in the Baltimore Canyon Trough and Georges Bank Basin. Our work highlights the suitability of Early- to mid-Cretaceous sandstones within these offshore stratigraphic basins for carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). CCS is a mature technology that can permanently store carbon dioxide emissions from large point sources and can serve as enabling infrastructure for negative-emissions approaches such as bioenergy with CCS.

Key aspects of this work include:

These efforts evaluate offshore carbon-storage technologies and their environmental and economic implications, supporting potential commercial deployment and substantial reductions in CO2 emissions for New Jersey, the Mid-Atlantic region, and beyond.

Research output

Sminchak, J., Skopec, S., Petras, B., Gupta, N., Albert, J., Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., & Bachand, K. (2026). Defining infrastructure feasibility for hub-scale offshore Atlantic carbon storage in the northeastern United States. Energies, 19(6), 1493. Link

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., Adams, A.C., Graham, S.J., Mountain, G.S., Browning, J.V., & Baldwin, K.E. (2024). Cretaceous sequence stratigraphy of Georges Bank Basin: Implications for carbon storage. AAPG Bulletin, 108(11), 2127–2158. Link

Baldwin, K.E., Miller, K.G., Schmelz, W.J., Mountain, G.S., Jordan, L.M., & Browning, J.V. (2022). Cretaceous sequence stratigraphy of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough: Implications for basin evolution and carbon storage. Geosphere, 18(6), 1885–1909. Link

Jordan, L.M., Browning, J.V., Miller, K.G., & Schmelz, W.J. (2022). Quantitative biostratigraphic analysis and age estimates of Middle Cretaceous sequences in the Baltimore Canyon Trough, offshore Mid-Atlantic U.S. margin. Journal of Foraminiferal Research, 52(4), 229–247. Link

Schmelz, W.J., Hochman, G., & Miller, K.G. (2020). Total cost of carbon capture and storage implemented at a regional scale: Northeastern and midwestern United States. Interface Focus, 10(5), 20190065. Link

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., Mountain, G.S., Browning, J.V., & Baldwin, K.E. (2020). Onshore–offshore correlations of Cretaceous fluvial-deltaic sequences, southern Baltimore Canyon Trough. AAPG Bulletin, 104(2), 411–448. Link

Miller, K.G., Lombardi, C.J., Browning, J.V., Schmelz, W.J., Gallegos, G., Mountain, G.S., & Baldwin, K.E. (2018). Back to basics of sequence stratigraphy: Early Miocene and mid-Cretaceous examples from the New Jersey paleoshelf. Journal of Sedimentary Research, 88(1), 148–176. Link

Gupta, N., Sminchak, J.R., Skopec, S., Petras, B., Dickson, D., Hunt, R., Hershberger, J., Turney, J., Albert, J., Schmelz, W.J., Elam, D., & Bachand, K. (2026). Exploring Offshore Regional Atlantic Carbon Storage and Infrastructure for Eastern USA (EXPLORE-ACS): Final Technical Report. Battelle Memorial Institute for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, DOE Award No. DE-FE0032407. Report

Kelley, M., Mawalkar, S., Ganesh, P.R., Skopec, S., Greb, S., Sparks, T., Hershberger, J., James, D., Bopp, C., Lasemi, Y., Leetaru, H., Carter, K., Harrison, W., Pool, S., McDonald, J., Schmelz, W.J., Clark, R., Carpenter, S., Hickman, J., Moore, J., Lewis, E., Dinterman, P., Vance, T., Daft, G., Cooney, M., Anthony, R., Woodward, C., Schmid, K., Haagsma, A., Conner, A., Miller, K.G., Douds, A., Beckham-Feller, V., & Solis, M. (2025). MRCI Subtask 2.1: Defining Sub-Regional Carbon Storage Systems—Final Technical Summary Report. Midwest Regional Carbon Initiative, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio. Report

Baldwin, K., Fukai, I., Miller, K., & Schmelz, W. (2020). Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain and Adjacent Offshore Region: Characterization of Carbon Storage Targets. MRCSP topical report prepared for DOE-NETL project DE-FC26-05NT42589, Battelle Memorial Institute, Columbus, Ohio. Report

Coastal geomorphology

This research focuses on measuring and analyzing coastal topographical change using highly accurate RTK-GNSS, UAV photogrammetry, and lidar data. We aim to relate these observed changes to measurements of physical forcing acting on New Jersey's coasts over timescales ranging from hours to decades. The overarching goal is to better understand how coastal processes drive geomorphological change, inform coastal-resource management decisions, and support coastal resilience and responsible stewardship of the coastal environment.

View the most recent experimental coastal erosion forecast for northern Monmouth County, based on Schmelz et al. (2026): forecast image. Not for navigation or safety decisions.

Research output

Schmelz, W.J., Sherman, D., & Miller, K.G. (2026). Indications of storm energy recorded by stratigraphic deposits generated during coastal erosion events preserved within a progradational stretch of barrier beach. GSA Connects 2026, Denver, Colorado, 11–14 October 2026, abstract 44-7, poster 224. Abstract

Schmelz, W.J., Miller, K.G., Liu, J., Stanley, J.N., & Browning, J.V. (2026). Increasing frequency of coastal erosion indicated by a hindcast model of storm-driven forcing calibrated with beach stratigraphy. Earth’s Future, 14(8), e2025EF007482. Link

Schmelz, W.J., Spector, A.B., Neitzke-Adamo, L., & Miller, K.G. (2025). Semi-empirically modelling barrier sediment transport in response to hydrodynamic forcing using UAV-derived topographical data (Holgate, New Jersey). Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 50(1), e6052. Link

Schmelz, W.J. & Psuty, N.P. (2022). Application of geomorphological maps and LiDAR to volumetrically measure coastal geomorphological change from Hurricane Sandy at Fire Island National Seashore. Geomorphology, 408, 108262. Link

Schmelz, W.J. & Psuty, N.P. (2019). Quantification of airborne lidar accuracy in coastal dunes (Fire Island, New York). Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, 85(2), 133–144. Link